Will commission income increase in 2012?

I asked a friend of mine this question and his response was "It better increase, I need a pay raise". Most insurance incomes the last few years have either dropped or been stagnant.  So, what is the outlook for 2012?

The consensus is that commission income will increase about 10-12% in 2012.  There are several reasons for this:

* The soft insurance market in property/casualty is showing signs of change and insurance companies should be able to take some rate increases.
* Life insurance sales, after a dismal 3 years period, will start to rebound. This may not be from to an improving job market; it may have more to do with people finally making important life decisions after 3+ years of evading them.
* Internet social sites has forever changed the ways agents market by providing new insurance sales opportunities.
* New insurance agents are seeing increased volume and premium contract requirements from the insurance companies. Increased pressure on established agents to perform at a higher level.
* Improved efficiency in electronic processing of agent commission payments gets money in the hands of the agents faster and allows for greater agency efficiency.
* Inability or unwillingness of agents to hire staff the last few years has led to a more efficient agency operation. This efficiency will translate into increased sales in 2012. New hires will be better scrutinized and trained in 2012.
* The US population has grown by 6,000,000 in just the last 3 years alone (305M to 311M). Population increases equal more insurance sales.

My experience has been that one of the biggest reasons why incomes will increase in 2012 is the attitude change of the agents.  Many agents have been bogged down emotionally the last few years. They don't like it, their managers don't like it, the insurance companies don't like it, and it is time to do something about it.
I see 2012 as the years where agents make the decision that "if it is to be, it is up to me".